how did this study on kidney disease come about?
as we age, our kidney function naturally declines. it’s highest when we’re young adults and lower when we get towards 80, 85. but the definition of early chronic kidney disease is the same for all ages. a healthy young person [has] a [normal] kidney function level of about 100. at around 60, we start calling it early chronic kidney disease, so you have to lose a lot before it’s even recognized. and the reason we didn’t recognize it is that it was a grey zone. in this 60 to 100 [range], we didn’t know if there was an increased risk of any problems at, say, 77.
so, previously, if a young person’s decline was about 20 per cent, a doctor would not discuss it with the patient?
no, because no one knew that it mattered. so imagine you’re a healthy 24-year-old with a normal [kidney function] level of about 110 and you felt fine but had a test and it was 84. your doctor may choose to repeat it, or may think it’s not kidney disease. and that’s the point: that this is not even recognized. and it’s nobody’s fault, it’s just that we didn’t know there was a risk. it’s hard to study young people because they don’t often have heart attacks. you need these mega data sets to study them.
is kidney disease among young adults on the rise?
kidney disease is on the rise, as is heart disease, in young people. a lot of it is due to increase in obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure. the same factors that drive heart disease drive kidney disease.
so your study results have real world implications for both younger populations and health professionals?
exactly. and we only had data for 10 years, so you can imagine if we had data for 40 years, the signal would likely be way stronger. because if we’re looking at a 23- year-old who has low kidney function for 10 years, the chances of them having a heart attack are really low. but it’s likely if they have something wrong in their kidneys now, they may have it in their 50s and 60s. that’s the worrying part. our average lifespan in canada is 80 years, so if we see even a small signal in a short time frame, there’s probably going to be a real big one down the road.