ouch! edmonton oilers had 4th worst off-season of any nhl team, analytics expert says
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evander kane incites vegas fan
the edmonton oilers had the fourth worst june-july off-season of any national hockey league team, reports stats analyst dom luszczyszyn of the athletic.
only teams that lost major free agents, the los angeles kings with vladislav gavrikov, the winnipeg jets with nikolaj ehlers and the toronto maple leafs with mitch marner declined more than the oilers this off-season, luszczyszyn argues.
the oilers have added forwards andrew mangiapane, ike howard, curtis lazar, while losing evander kane, viktor arvidsson, connor brown, corey perry, john klingberg to trades of free agency.
said luszczyszyn: “for the oilers, everything hinges on their two rookies. they need one or both of ike howard and matthew savoie to be good from the jump. that’s because a lot of their forward depth has been turned over this summer. gone are evander kane, viktor arvidsson, connor brown and corey perry — all of whom looked like serviceable middle-six talents. in their place is only andrew mangiapane, who could have some upside in a bigger role, but is coming off a down year with the capitals. the oilers have lost a lot on paper. they’re still an elite team, but how edmonton responds internally — with the rookies as focal points — will dictate how far the oilers can go next season.”
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to do his rankings, luszczyszyn assigns each nhl team a number, that number based on what the team’s net rating at present compared to what it would’ve been at the end of the 2024-25 season. he notes: “this is not an exact science, nor is it a list of how good each team is expected to be next season — just how much they’ve changed.”
the most positive change is san jose, +28, then montreal, +23. the oilers are -8, winnipeg and toronto, -13, los angeles, -18.
my take
1. if you’re an oilers fan and you’re not worried about the massive loss of veteran talent at forward we just witnessed, you’re not paying attention. corey perry was edmonton’s second best two-way winger at even strength in the playoffs. brown played his best hockey for the oilers in april to may, until he got injured in the playoffs. kane has been an absolute beast in many a playoff game since he arrived here. arvidsson had awful puck luck all year, but he played solid two-way hockey as an oiler. these players will not be easy to replace, especially the x factor of kane’s intimidation in the playoffs.
2. luszczyszyn does consistently excellent work. i don’t agree with every valuation for every player made by luszczyszyn, as he’s only as good as the numbers he uses, and hockey analytics is not an exact science. but he’s consistent and admirably fair in assessing players. he’s generally in the ballpark when it comes to the value of players, so i put weight in his overall assessment.
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3. the oilers brought in vets last year, moving out younger faster players ryan mcleod, dylan holloway, philip brogerg, and warren foegele. it didn’t win the oilers the cup, but they got back to the stanley cup final. their approach last summer wasn’t an overall disaster. it worked out ok in the end.
4. change isn’t necessarily bad. change can also mean opportunity.
this year the loss isn’t speed and youth, it’s veteran savvy, defesnive discipline and intensity that have been lost. incoming players like howard, savoie and david tomasek are highly-skilled players. noah philp also showed himself to a useful two-way player last year. at the same time, trent frederic should far more healthy next season than he was in the playoffs, where he lacked agility and power in his skating, depriving his game of a scoring and intimidating edge.
the cupboard isn’t bare this year. gm stan bowman did some interesting scrambling to bring in howard and tomasek, to players with top 6 potential.
my own sense is that savoie and philp look ready for at least third and fourth line roles respectively. if one of howard or tomasek can also step up, and if frederic can provide some of the ferocity that kane provided, the oilers might even be improved at forward.
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5. all is not lost for oilers — and it’s worth nothing that luszczyszyn himself doesn’t make that claim.
remember, the biggest losers on luszczyszyn’s same list last year also tended to be the nhl’s better teams, which also tended to be teams pressed up against the cap and unable to retain all the strong players they had acquired for the 2024 stanley cup run. bottom of the list last july were the winnipeg jets, -32, then vegas, -28, dallas, -27, and florida, -23. only two teams that made it to the final eight of the nhl playoffs in 2024 were granted plus marks under luszczyszyn’s system, vancouver at +1 and the oilers, +3.
said luszczyszyn of the oilers last july: “lucky for edmonton, the oilers not only didn’t have to lose any vitals cogs, they actually got to add reinforcements… a team that was a goal away from glory getting better — even marginally so — is a big deal.” with the retention of adam henrique and the addition of viktor arvidsson and jeff skinner, luszczyszyn said, “that gives edmonton a seriously deep top nine that may be the best forward group we’ve seen in the cap era.”
of course, this july 2024 assessment of the oilers came before the disastrous loss of restricted free agents holloway and broberg last august.
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