expect to pay more at the grocery store in 2026: canada's food price report
3 minute read
canada's food price report says canadian households can expect to pay nearly $1,000 more on groceries in 2026.
george myrer
/
the chronicle herald
there is no relief in sight for everyone dealing with the high cost of food, according to canada’s food price report.
it shows that food bills could climb by nearly $1,000 for households in 2026.
“we expect 2026 to be a difficult year for families, especially those who have a tight budget,” said the report’s lead author, sylvain charlebois, director of the agri-food analytics lab at dalhousie university.
“it is the highest increase we have projected in our 16 years.”
the report, which was released thursday, was produced by dalhousie university and is supported by a collective of 10 universities across canada, making it the most collaborative and nationally representative of the 16 editions.
the increase in food prices next year depends on a variety of factors, including tariffs and international trading partners, climate events, federal and provincial policies, shifts in manufacturing and retail, labour markets and more, said the report.
price increases will likely be felt all the way along the supply chain, from producers and food manufacturers to consumers.
affordability an issue
as food insecurity in canada continues to rise, food affordability will remain a critical pressure point for households. a quarter of the country’s households are considered food insecure. nearly 2.2 million people visited food banks on a monthly basis this year, according to the report.
advertisement
in 2026, the calculated food expenses for a family of four, consisting of an adult man, an adult woman, a teenage boy and a young girl, are expected to rise to $17,571.79, an increase of $994.63 from the previous year.
in 2025, food inflation was 3.4 per cent, within the report’s projected rate between three and five per cent.
the numbers are more dire for 2026 as food prices could rise by as much as six per cent in 2026. the most significant increases range from five to seven per cent in the meat category, suggests the report.
the most significant increases in food prices range from five to seven per cent in the meat category, according to canada’s food price report.
ryan taplin
/
the chronicle herald
“meat counter economics are incredibly complicated,” said charlebois. “beef prices aren’t likely to normalize before mid-year 2027. what people are doing now is pivoting toward chicken and we are running out of chicken and chicken prices have gone up. we are expecting in 2026 to see pork prices go up as a result of the beef pivot.”
charlebois expects consumers to see higher prices in “the middle of the store” as well.
“while meat is no. 1 again, also pantry goods, coffee, tea, dry pasta and sauces will actually become more expensive.”
he also said eating at restaurants will become more expensive next year.
“people are drinking less and restaurant operators need to generate more profits. as a result, they are going to have to revise menu prices.”
advertisement
expensive atlantic region
nova scotia, new brunswick, prince edward island and newfoundland and labrador all rated above the national average in food prices.
“the atlantic is an expensive place to eat, it has always been like that,” said charlebois, who has lived in nova scotia for 10 years. “we are remotely located, we are far away to get food into our region. without the production capacity, it gets really expensive as a result.”
charlebois said there are two components to food affordability: prices and the ability to pay for food.
“the ability to pay for food has been problematic,” he said. “we hope that wages will catch up for consumers as much as possible. what has helped in recent months are lower interest rates, giving a lot of people some breathing room.”
charlebois said consumers have become more savvy in finding deals, especially with independent grocers.
“consumers are in a different place nowadays; they actually understand what their options are in terms of savings,” he said.
“when you look at the atlantic region, more and more people are recognizing that the independent grocers may have some good deals for them.”
he cited gateway meat market in dartmouth as an independent grocer that is among the leaders in offering value pricing.
advertisement
“gateway is a perfect example of how an independent grocer can actually differentiate itself and allow people to save as much as possible.”
charlebois said knowledge is crucial for consumers to tackle high prices.
“i think consumers are in a different place now compared to a few years ago,” he said. “consumers are doing their homework before they leave their homes. when they go to the grocery shop, they know how much they should pay for certain products and they know what their options are.
“people have taken note and that empowers consumers to save as much as possible.”
share story
