electricity demand by b.c. mines likely to rise by 60 per cent by 2035, consultant estimates
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david barbour, project engineer with the consulting firm sysene, helped crunch the numbers showing b.c.'s mining sector will need at least 50 per cent more electricity from the province's grid by 2035 than it is using now, maybe twice as much.
b.c.’s mining industry will likely need 60 per cent more electricity by 2035 than it is currently using, according to a recent consultant’s analysis, mostly to accommodate potential new mines.
“(it will be) a huge challenge” to deliver that power, considering the new demands are going to be unevenly distributed around the province and there is no template for determining how much power mines will need, according to consultant david barbour.
barbour, an engineer with the decarbonization consulting firm sysene, crunched the numbers for the group foresight canada with support from b.c. hydro, the mining association of b.c. and others to model out the needs for mining over the next 10 years.
the findings help back up the forecasts b.c. hydro has made for its need to shore up the provincial grid, most notably the estimated $6 billion north coast transmission line to double the electricity capacity across the middle of the province.
barbour said the northwest will be the biggest source of new demand, but upgrades to the grid will be required in all corners of b.c. to handle new demands for the electrification of existing carbon-intensive, diesel-powered mining operations.
the mining association of b.c. counts 15 major mines operating in b.c. in total, barbour said the industry’s needs account for one gigawatt of b.c. hydro’s generating capacity, which is slightly less than the capacity of hydro’s new site c dam.
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barbour added that b.c.’s industrial carbon price, which is set to rise to $170 a tonne, “makes the business case for electrifying a lot more attractive.”
“mining companies in general do want to decarbonize,” barbour said.
replacing underground rock trucks and scoops are the easiest, barbour said. battery-powered equipment in this sector is becoming widely available.
the giant dump trucks and shovels used in open-pit mines, which make up most of b.c.’s active operations, aren’t as easy. battery power isn’t practical, and to electrify those, equipment needs to be “tethered” to power sources
“trolley assist” equipment, which run off overhead wires, similar to vancouver’s trolley transit buses, is an option that can pay off if the infrastructure for it is going be in place for a long time, barbour said.
“it’s not something that’s brand new,” barbour said. “it’s been around for years and it’s just a matter of, ‘can you make it work.'”
it is the mining development in b.c.’s northwest, starting with an extension of newmont corp.’s red chris mine northeast of stewart, that pose the most new demand and potential limits.
barbour considered three scenarios in his analysis. there is a base-case, which includes all developments that are underway, and assumes no major mines will close.
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then there is a moderate scenario, which includes an estimate for a longer list of proposals that would more than double mining’s electricity use. the optimistic scenario includes more proposals going ahead, which barbour sees as unlikely.
“i just don’t think we can get the power built,” barbour said.
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