covid-19 levels relatively high and holding, modelling shows
2 minute read
dr. fiona brinkman.
jason payne
/
png
the mask mandates may be over, but covid-19 is not — at least not yet.
while much of life has returned to normal, new modelling shows there continues to be cause for concern. while previous infection patterns showed “waves and troughs,” now there is a constant, and relatively high, level of infections in b.c., according to dr. fiona brinkman, a research scientist with the coronavirus variants rapid response network.
“the level is higher than we would like. we want to find ways to get that level down,” said brinkman. “a relatively high level of covid-19 in the population matters because it impacts rates of hospitalizations, longer-term health effects and absenteeism in workplaces — collectively impacting both health care and the economy.”
in b.c., updated calculations based on wastewater tests and other surveillance methods suggest one-in-250 people are getting a new infection daily. with a 10-day illness period, and five out of those 10 days being infections, that means about 1-in-25 people are infected right now in the province, and about one-in-50 are infectious.
“in the coming months we are likely to have a more constant level of infection caused by people getting new infections and people getting reinfections, particularly among people who had covid about a year ago,” said brinkman. “this steady high level of infection has an insidious effect on the health-care system and the economy, with high levels of absenteeism.”
advertisement
brinkman said it’s time to change the conversation from worrying about the next wave to “how can we get this level down?”
“if you haven’t had covid in 10 months you could be at risk for a notable reinfection,” said brinkman.
measures that could have an impact on reducing that level of infection include improved ventilation. the covarr-net modelling led by the university of b.c.’s sarah (sally) otto shows that improving ventilation in crowded indoor settings would also reduce transmission, and cases could drop by 40 per cent across canada.
keeping up with vaccine boosters is another important strategy, said brinkman: “the virus has evolved to evade our immune system and our vaccine immunity better, but the booster, particularly in the elderly, can buy time, and have an impact on a population level.”
in addition, cautioned brinkman, the science community still doesn’t know what the impact of multiple infections could be on an individual’s health.
“for those people who want to be careful of multiple repeat infections, if you are eligible for a booster, you should get one,” said brinkman.
brinkman advises people to time their vaccine boosters accordingly if they have a high-risk activity, like a long plane flight or travel coming up.
advertisement
“given the short period of time that boosters are effective — new data shows they are effective for about three months — i would recommend getting it a month before a higher-risk activity.”
spring boosters of the covid mrna bivalent vaccine is available for those in high-risk groups, including the immunocompromised, seniors over 80 years of age, indigenous people over 70, and seniors in long-term-care homes.
more news, fewer ads: our in-depth journalism is possible thanks to the support of our subscribers. for just $3.50 per week, you can get unlimited, ad-lite access to the vancouver sun, the province, national post and 13 other canadian news sites. support us by subscribing today: the vancouver sun | the province.
share story
