how voting patterns shifted in metro vancouver during the 2024 provincial election
3 minute read
we apologize, but this video has failed to load.
try refreshing your browser, or
tap here to see other videos from our team.
tap here to see other videos from our team.
how people vote in metro vancouver seems driven by where they live, according to detailed voting results from the last provincial election.
results from b.c.’s 2024 provincial election show a significant geographic consolidation of ndp and conservative voters — particularly in metro vancouver — compared to 2020, according to a postmedia analysis.
support for the b.c. ndp solidified in burnaby, new westminster, north vancouver and the tri-cities. the b.c. conservative party consolidated support in richmond, made big inroads in surrey and swept nearly everything east of langley.
the analysis was based on voting area data released by elections b.c. voting areas are designed to contain 400 to 700 registered voters, which provides significantly more detail on voting patterns than riding-level results.
here’s what we found:
where people live appears to drive how they vote
in 2020, the b.c. liberals won scores of voting areas across north vancouver, new westminster and the tri-cities.
in 2024, the b.c. ndp swept virtually all of those cities, with the exception of a few small pockets in coquitlam.
conservative support in vancouver — where the b.c. liberals, which later rebranded as b.c. united, traditionally dominated a number of downtown neighbourhoods and much of the west side — shrunk to little more than a few narrow pockets in yaletown, the west end, kerrisdale and shaughnessy.
advertisement
at least some of that polarization can be attributed to the rightward leaning of the conservative party, relative to b.c. united, which dropped out of the race.
sanjay jeram, a political-science professor at sfu, said the rightward shift may have “scared off” some voters who would have traditionally voted for the b.c. liberals.
“the cost of moving to the right is that you’re going to essentially alienate certain voters,” jeram said. “so now you see a little more polarization.”
conservatives made big gains in several metro neighbourhoods
in richmond, the conservatives led most voting areas outside of steveston — a significant change from 2020 when the ndp won in neighbourhoods across the city.
in surrey, which leaned heavily to the ndp in 2020, conservatives took large swaths of the northwest, fleetwood and cloverdale, and other neighbourhoods.
both jeram and stewart prest, a political-science professor at ubc, suggested that public safety, an issue the conservatives prioritized, may have played a role, given that communities south of the fraser often lean conservative on social issues.
“if you’re asking for a simple answer as to what explains the conservative growth (in surrey), i would say it’s the way they own that issue,” jeram said.
advertisement
the margins of victory were smaller
despite the consolidation of votes around the two main parties, the margin of victory was often much smaller in 2024 than 2020, especially in metro vancouver.
in vancouver’s shaughnessy neighbourhood, where the 2020 margin of victory for the b.c. liberals often approached 80 percentage points, the largest margin was 39 percentage points.
in parts of pitt meadows where the ndp won by close to 50 points in 2020, the margin of victory in 2024 was often 10 percentage points or less.
both jeram and prest said the long-standing idea of a rural/urban political divide is starting to shift. they suggested other markers, like ethnicity and housing density, could be more relevant.
“different dividing lines are starting to form,” prest said.
b.c. greens still struggle outside core ridings
b.c.’s green party is facing an existential crisis, according to the experts postmedia spoke with.
the party, which won just two seats in the last provincial election, struggled outside of the saanich north and sea to sky ridings they won.
both prest and jeram said the party’s struggle to define itself on issues other than the environment made voting green a tough proposition in most of the province.
advertisement
“it’s hard to make the case for the continuing relevance of a party that has trouble carving out a distinct and consistent identity on most issues,” prest said. “the short answer is, everybody has made up their mind about the environment.”
federal conservative talking points rang true in b.c.
while the ndp suffered significant losses on vancouver island and along the northwest coast, they held support in some areas, including near bella bella, hazelton, and near prince rupert.
the conservatives borrowed political rhetoric from the federal conservative party that prioritized workers — an approach that spoke to disengaged voters, both jeram and prest said.
“the working class felt disconnected, disadvantaged and not listened to by the ndp,” jeram said.
“voters seemed quite willing to come along with john rustad’s version of conservatism,” prest said. “by using that federal stamp, i think it really helped build the case that this was a big tent conservative movement.”
share story
