pandemic paranoia tied to uncertainty, rule flouting: study

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irrational feelings of mistrust correlate with an increased inclination to embrace conspiracy theories.

by dave yasvinski

published jul 29, 2021

last updated feb 21, 2025

2 minute read

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2 minute read

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paranoia proliferates amid pandemic: study

when rules aren't forced, it can make people mistrustful. getty

paranoia — the feeling that other people are a threat — is on the rise in areas of the united states where people aren’t following mask-wearing guidelines, according to a new study.

the study, conducted at yale university and published in the journal nature human behaviour, said the phenomenon was most prevalent in places where rule-following was usually the norm.

“our psychology is massively impacted by the state of the world around us,” said phil corlett, senior author of the study and an associate professor of psychology at yale. “from a policy standpoint, it is clear that if a government sets rules, it is important that they are enforced and people are supported for complying. otherwise, they may feel betrayed and act erratically.”

the team of researchers had been studying the role of uncertainty in the rate of paranoia when the pandemic reared its head in early 2020, presenting a unique opportunity to study the effect of global turmoil on paranoia among the general population. their initial study used simple card game — governed by abruptly changing rules — to provoke paranoia among participants who felt the game was unfair and began to alter the way they played, often declining to make decisions that had proven beneficial earlier. this helped researchers establish a paranoia baseline among the general population just prior to the pandemic.

“we continued to gather data through lockdown and into reopening,” corlett said. “it was one of those rare, serendipitous incidences where we were able to study what happens when the world changes rapidly and unpredictably.”

by using an online survey and the same card game, researchers were able to measure rising levels of paranoia and choice volatility in real time. they contrasted this data against the effect of public health policy choices — such as whether masks were mandated or simply recommended — in different areas of the country, factoring in the historic tendency of people in specific regions to obey or flout the rules.

they found levels of paranoia and choice volatility were higher in states that mandated the wearing of masks versus those with less restrictive regulations. the highest levels of paranoia were found among people who were historically inclined to obey the rules, but lived in areas where the majority of people were not adhering to mask mandates. “essentially, people got paranoid when there was a rule and people were not following it,” corlett said.

not surprisingly, the more paranoid a person was, the more likely they were to embrace conspiracy theories surrounding masks, vaccines and even qanon — a disproven, far-right belief that the government is protecting politicians and entertainers who are engaged in a vast network of pedophile rings.

times of intense trauma have historically prompted rising rates of paranoia, corlett said, pointing to a long-prevalent belief that the bubonic plague was caused by jews and the “9/11 truth” movement that pinned the blame for the terror attacks on the u.s. government, despite all evidence to the contrary.

“in times of trauma and great change, sadly, we have a tendency to blame another group,” he said.

dave yasvinski is a writer with healthing.ca