'democratization of covid': four in 10 canadians know someone recently infected, poll finds

nearly four in 10 canadians know someone close to them who has been infected with covid-19 in the past 10 days, a new poll shows — further evidence that appears to support a warning from british columbia’s provincial health officer, that all will be exposed to omicron at some point.if everyone will inevitably be exposed, what then? will it “normalize” covid? the more people who experience covid, and the more who fare relatively well because of vaccination, the more people will become resigned to simply living with the virus and increasingly weary of — and increasingly vocal about expressing their displeasure with — social restrictions, some observers say.one eminent group of scientists is already calling for the focus to shift to “the ‘new normal’ of life with covid,” a life that doesn’t include eradication or a “zero covid” strategy, but one that sees covid monitored along with the flu and other respiratory viruses, and a “peak week threshold” for hospitalizations and deaths established that, if crossed, would trigger the emergency use of measures to slow the spread.according to a new maru public opinion survey, 38 per cent of canadians know someone in their immediate family or circle of friends who has contracted covid in the last 10 days, up from just 11 per cent who said so on dec. 20. ontario residents are most likely to know someone who has recently acquired covid (42 per cent).“putting this wildfire contagion in perspective, the number of canadians who have said this on a week-over-week basis since dec. 20 is up a whopping twenty-seven percentage points,” said maru executive vice-president john wright.“i don’t know whether it’s the right word, but i think it’s the democratization of the virus,” wright said. “it used to be a virus that other people got — that it was about the ‘them,’ and now it’s about the ‘us.’” it’s in our homes, wright said. “it’s with our neighbours, our friends, our co-workers — almost every workplace now has people who are absent because they’re isolating, or they’ve got it.“it really is now everybody’s business, as opposed to somebody else’s business.”while highly contagious, omicron is believed at least 54 per cent less likely than delta to put people in hospital or cause severe disease, likely because of a combination of vaccination and immunity from old infections. however, some say omicron is likely as virulent as the original virus out of wuhan, china, dr. vivek goel, president and vice-chancellor of the university of waterloo, said in a q&a released this week.the maru poll found that most of those surveyed (61 per cent) are worried about this latest iteration of sars-cov-2 and are “not just going about” life as usual. albertans were least likely (48 per cent) to agree with that sentiment, with most (52 per cent) reporting they are not worried about this new strain and are just getting on with things as usual. people in manitoba and saskatchewan were also less likely to be staying home more because of omicron.most (six in ten people nationally) are following news of omicron closely. most (61 per cent) said they are alarmed by omicron and 62 per cent worry they’ll get it. “there is a core group of people who are following this, taking it very seriously, and complying with what is necessary,” wright said.“but i think the nature of this is also going to affect people’s views: people not only know people who have got it within their circle of friends and colleagues and family. they’ll also have seen them, for the most part, all do well and get through it, which changes the perception of the nature of the virus.”others aren’t so convinced. omicron has pushed hospitalizations in the united states to a record high. quebec, where hospitals are stretched, is planning a health tax for people who refuse to be vaccinated against covid. ottawa’s largest hospital is prepared to bring in covid-positive staff with symptoms, should staffing shortages due to hordes of people in isolation become critical.

omicron is changing people’s perception of risk, “but risk has two components — probability and consequences,” baruch fischhoff, a renowned expert in risk communication at carnegie mellon university said in an email. because of dashboards and daily, though now unreliable, case counts, “people know the probability story much better than the consequences one,” he said.but knowing someone who has covid isn’t the same “as knowing how much they suffered — or will suffer, through lasting effects,” fischhoff said. “people don’t talk about their illnesses. those who suffer most often disappear.”“a full accounting of the consequences would include what ‘mild’ means,” fischhoff added, as well as the potential long-term effects yet to be detected, and the “remorse over getting exposed, and guilt over potentially giving it to others,” even when knowing covid can be transmitted before symptoms appear.in the past, when people tested positive, they would often go over and over it in their minds — after all that i’ve done, how did i get infected? with such a hyper-contagious variant, “i think the silver lining, to the extent that there is any silver lining, is the shame (of getting covid) is quickly melting away. and thank goodness,” lindsey leininger, a public-health policy expert at dartmouth college, told the atlantic.“how quickly people learn about the consequences part of the risk equation will shape how seriously they take the threat,” fischoff said. “tragically, i suspect that many people will learn too late.”omicron is unlikely to be the last variant of concern and current vaccines may need updating, a world health organization technical advisory group said tuesday. although today’s vaccines aren’t stopping all transmission — they don’t provide sterilizing immunity against sars-cov-2 — and are less protective against infection with omicron, they are helping protect people from having “really bad consequences if they do get infected,” goel said.in terms of actions governments should impose now — reduce capacity limits and social contacts, a full lockdown “circuit breaker” or leave things relatively unrestricted and let people use their best judgment — each option had the support of about a third of the 1,507 randomly selected canadian adults polled by maru. “there is no dominant sense of what the right hammer is to bring down on this,” wright said.western university bioethics expert maxwell smith said that as more people experience covid, our collective view of covid will change. he’s not sure it ought to.“i think the problem with that collective shift in view is that we will normalize what covid looks like for the most privileged, the most advantaged of us in society who happen to be healthy, happen to have access to three doses of a vaccine, happen to have access to good healthcare,” smith said, “leaving marginalized communities bearing the brunt of this thing moving forward.”more people infected means more “vectors of transmission” capable of spreading the virus to the frail elderly and immunocompromised, who will have severe outcomes, smith said. and while there’s the epidemiological sense of what endemicity looks like, “at the end of the day, the decision to return to normal, or just live with the virus with few restrictions isn’t really a scientific question. it’s more a social and ethical question.” as with influenza, society needs to land at a place where we decide what level of death, and hospitalizations, people are willing to live with, he said.for now, we’re in the acute phase of the pandemic. “it’s clearly not a prudent idea to remove all sorts of restrictions and just let a pandemic virus rip through society,” smith said. “but once we get out of that phase, and we may be getting there, hoping we don’t see another variant emerge, we need to have those conversations.”the survey of randomly selected canadian adults who are maru voice canada online panellists, was conducted on jan. 5, with a follow-up question on close contacts with covid-19 on jan. 10. a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.• email: skirkey@postmedia.com | twitter: sharon_kirkey

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