could a spike in covid-19 infections force albertans to re-enter lockdown?
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most people at diamond park in downtown edmonton are social distancing while enjoying the weather on saturday, may 16, 2020.
greg southam
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postmedia
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by lorne gunter
alberta may or may not get a small spike in covid-19 infections now that we are coming out of lockdown.
the numbers coming out of the long weekend were excellent – just 39 new infections reported monday. but alberta health has sometimes had trouble keeping test results current during weekends.
it will be wednesday or thursday before we see the true trend.
if there is a rise, the question then becomes: how much of an increase would albertans, their politicians and health officials be prepared to tolerate before demanding we re-enter lockdown?
my guess is it would have to get pretty bad – i.e. multiple cargill and jbs level outbreaks – before most albertans would accept any rollback of our newfound relaunch liberty.
and the increase would have to be widespread.
if there were spikes in a couple of places, like lumber mills or oilsands work camps, or if there were some lingering outbreaks just in long-term care facilities, i’m thinking most albertans would not be willing to crawl back into isolation.
nor do i think our leaders would ask us to go backwards.
there might be clampdowns around infected areas, the way last week’s relaunch was delayed in calgary and brooks. but even if there is a temporary increase in the number of positive tests, the worst we are likely to see is a delay of phases two and three.
we’ll stay stalled at phase one. we won’t move on to gyms and movie theatres reopening, rec centres, sports fields and arenas, freer travel.
the ucp government and alberta’s public health officials have shown they are prepared to take a sensible approach. they could have kept us all locked up another two weeks because of problems in the calgary and southern zones, but smartly and confidently, they did not.
that means they are looking at the numbers, and even subsets of the numbers, and making rational decisions not based on textbooks and panic.
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frankly, i’m betting on albertans to remain fairly diligent about personal hygiene and social distancing even now that we’re out and about a bit more. so i’d put my faith in our infection statistics continuing generally downward.
germany and south korea, which were ahead of us in relaunching, has seen small upticks. so far, those two countries’ increases in positive tests have not been large enough to provoke talk of a second lockdown, though.
denmark borders germany to the north and has done even better. it locked down, then relaunched at about the same time as its much larger neighbour. yet, mercifully, denmark has not witnessed an increase in new infections.
denmark noted that no country has found children under 12 infecting adults, so it reopened its day cares, pre-schools and elementary schools nearly three weeks ago.
this was followed by small businesses (mostly independent shops) almost two weeks ago, and restaurants and cafes last week.
despite this phased return to normal-ish, denmark’s infection and death rates have continued to fall.
reportedly, danes are mostly not wearing masks in public, except on transit and in indoor locations where two-metres separation is difficult.
that seems about right.
masks do little to protect the wearer from getting the coronavirus. they are mostly to protect others from the wearer, if the wearer has the virus and doesn’t know it.
even then, their effectiveness is limited if you aren’t wearing them exactly correctly, if you don’t wash your hands before putting them on and before taking them off, if you touch them while wearing them, if you get them moist, if you use them more than once, etc.
but if our infections begin to rise and masks give the public and officials confidence to keep expanding the relaunch, then masks might just make themselves useful.
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